Events of the past two months have reaffirmed what I expressed in my October 11 post: With every day that passes and every new failure by President Donald Trump and his Republican lackies I become more convinced that neither he nor Trumpism will survive as a political force after January 2029.  Apparently, the insecure old man who brags “Trump Was Right About Everything” realizes that too because his erratic behavior shows he is beginning to panic. 

I have long believed that if Americans ever got a taste of right-wing ideology, they would soundly reject it in future elections.  Well, Trump is dishing that up in heaping portions with his tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy and attacks on the social safety net.  He is recklessly imposing the worst conservative policies on the voters and polls are showing that most of them do not like it.

One of Trump’s strongest selling points in 2024 was his promise to revitalize the economy.  Six recent national polls, however, show that Americans are not happy with his performance – even many Republican voters.  His highest approval rating on handling the economy was 40% and the lowest was 31%, with a significant drop in Republican approval, including an 8 point drop in approval by MAGA Republicans in one poll.  This is a sure sign that Trump’s support is seriously waning.

During a December 3 cabinet meeting, when he wasn’t napping, Trump blamed Democrats for the economic problems that he created.  He claimed “affordability” is a Democrat “scam” and “con job” that does not mean anything to anybody.  These comments make it obvious that Trump fails to understand or care about what Americans are feeling or suffering.  Ah, but Republicans on Capitol Hill know what is going on because they are hearing about it from their constituents every day.  Love him or hate him, they do not want to be tethered to Trump as his support craters and they are beginning to oppose him.   

One of the best indications that Trump is weakening and becoming less powerful is his failure to coerce Indiana Republican state senators to approve a state map that would likely flip two congressional districts from blue to red.  He promised to back primary candidates to take their seats, his supporters threatened violence against them and their families and Vice President J D Vance made two trips to the state to convince them to follow Trump’s orders.  A majority of these senators, however, joined Democrats to defeat the redistricting bill passed by the Indiana House.  Even in a state that Trump reportedly won by almost 20 points in 2024, he got stiff armed.

Trump is not doing well at the ballot box either.  Republicans have continued to lose elections, just like they did on November 4.  Perhaps the best example was the December 9 Miami mayor’s race, which was called a referendum on the president and occurred right in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago backyard.  Democrat Eileen Higgins bested Trump backed Republican Emilio González by 59% to 41% of the vote.  This is a city where Kamala Harris only defeated Trump by a single point.  Ms. Higgins becomes the first Democrat to lead this city in nearly 30 years and the first woman to ever hold this position.

Reportedly, Democrats are running around 10 points above their 2024 results, which is about the same number as Trump is behind his January approval rating.  No doubt, if Trump’s approval rating remains low, Democrats should do very well next November.  And if they take control of the House and/or the Senate, lame duck Trump will be basically finished, even with GOP politicians.

But here’s the thing:  The economy can improve, inflation may subside and it is even possible – though I believe highly unlikely – that the various Republican factions can unify.  But Trump will be 80 next year and 82 in 2028 and that is not going to change.  Even at 79, he frequently looks like a tired old man.

Articles with assessments of Trump’s physical and mental health are appearing almost daily.  He has swollen ankles, large bags under his eyes, a persistent bruise on his hand that he tries to hide and he is overweight.  There are numerous pictures and videos of him falling asleep at various functions, including the December 3 cabinet meeting.  He frequently makes no sense when giving one of his rambling speeches and his Truth Social posts are becoming erratic and delusional.  It appears that the more losses he suffers the greater the toll on his mental and physical health.  I believe that he will be lucky to make it to January 2029.

For a solid decade, Trump has been the glue that has held the various disparate wings of the Republican Party together.  His mainly working-class base is concerned about the economy, inflation and affordability.  The Republican authoritarians, the white nationalists and the billionaires like Elon Musk, however, do not care about them; but they each have very different, frequently conflicting objectives.

As soon as Trump is gone – and he will be gone – I believe that Trumpism will be history, that a vicious intra-party power struggle will fracture the GOP and that MAGA will essentially tear itself apart.

On that happy thought, I wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, and warm and wonderful Holidays, whatever you are celebrating.  Let’s keep fighting the autocrats and oligarchs to ensure that the New Year brings victories for democracy over tyrants, just as it did 250 year earlier.

For the past several weeks I have been recovering from major spine surgery, which has kept me from writing like I wanted.  But here are some of my accumulated thoughts.

It may take a week or so for the pundits and some Democratic politicians to get over bashing the seven Democrats and one independent who supposedly “caved” to the Republicans to end the government shutdown.  Regardless, I doubt if this will have any effect on the midterm elections next year so long as President Trump’s opponents do not get discouraged and let up pushing back on him and his incompetent administration.  And if Republicans believe this was a win for them, it will be very short lived.   

Why?  Well, during the shutdown Democrats caused most of us to focus on what the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act is doing to damage America’s health care systems.  They also forced Senate Republicans to agree to vote on extending the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a.k.a. Obamacare in December.  This put the onus totally on Trump and his Republican lapdogs in Congress to decide if millions of Americans will lose health care insurance coverage next year.  No doubt, GOP members of the House and Senate dread taking this vote right before the critical midterm election year of 2026.

Adding to Trump and Republican misery this month were the wins Democrats scored in the November 4 elections.  This leads me to believe that voters are beginning to understand that Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress care more about increasing their power than they do about Americans.

No need to rehash the election results but my takeaways from them are very encouraging.  But it was almost a nationwide sweep by Democrats and they won by wide margins.  I believe the most significant of these were in Virginia where Abigail Spanberger will be replacing Republican Glenn Youngkin in the governor’s mansion, big wins were scored in the state’s races for lieutenant governor and attorney general and Democrats gained at least 10 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. 

The frosting on the November 4 election cake though was the Associated Press survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City.  Without delving into the details, this quite comprehensive analysis shows that Democratic candidates had strong support from non-white voters.  This should be a huge positive for Democrats in the midterm elections next year after Trump attracted more Black and Hispanic voters in 2024.

Trump is obviously terrified of losing control of the U.S. House and I was concerned by the gerrymandering he has demanded to create more Republican districts in Texas and other GOP-controlled states.  Some right-wing political strategists, however, are also worried because it will move voters from safe Republican districts to districts currently held by Democrats.  This weakens the Republican districts, which could be a big problem for them in a blue-wave election.  Of course, this is also true for gerrymandering by Democrats, which would be risky in a red-wave election.  But so far, I have not seen any predictions of a Republican election blowout in 2026.

There is another encouraging sign that Trump’s grip on Republican voters is slipping: An Associated Press -NORC survey taken after the election but before Congress reached agreement to end the shutdown shows that only 33% of Americans approve of how Trump is managing the government.  These results are down from 43% in March, which the detailed results show was driven by eroding support from Republicans and independents

Another problem is also seriously weakening Trump’s support with his base.  The MAGA crowd has long demanded that the Department of Justice release the files on Jeffery Epstein’s sexual abuse investigation and Trump promised to do that during the 2024 campaign.  Unlike other promises he made, however, some of his most loyal far-right supporters, like Reps. Margorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert have not forgotten this one and are openly defying him.

Fortunately, Democrats got a subpoena issued to Epstein’s estate by the Republican-controlled House Oversight Committee that provided thousands of Epstein’s emails and other documents about his activities.  These are revealing that Trump spent a lot of time at Epstein’s house and “hours” with at least one young girl that Epstein was abusing.  These revelations have put Trump and the White House on the defensive. 

So has the bipartisan resolution demanding that the DOJ release the Epstein files, which is scheduled for a vote in the House next week.  If it passes, which is expected, it must be passed by the Senate, which is doubtful, and signed by Trump, which will never happen.  I believe, however, that much of the Epstein files’ contents will come out, one way or another.

Trump steamrolled his opposition for 10 months by flooding the zone with Project 2025 inspired executive orders.  Still, I believe the Epstein files debacle has stalled the momentum of his coup attempt and he is no longer looking invincible.  Consequently, those he is bullying will be more likely to rebel and his demands will tend to fall on deaf ears, like when Senate Republicans refused his demand to kill the filibuster.  And once people are no longer deathly afraid of Trump, he will have lost much of his power to complete an autocratic coup.

My friends, if we the people keep pushing back hard, we will beat Trump.

Several followers have told me that they appreciate my attempts to put a more positive spin on the future of American democracy but still have doubts that it can be saved from President Trump’s autocratic assaults.  I understand that.  But with every day that brings a new overreaching, attack on America’s foundation by this president and his Republican lackies, I become more convinced they will fail.  And here are just a few reasons why.

The United States is not like Russia, Hungary, or other nations where a democracy surrendered to an authoritarian.  America’s basic democratic institutions have been well established for almost 250 years under a dramatically different political system.  Their maturity makes them stronger and more resilient.  Like a healthy person, they may get sick and weakened by a virus (or a tyrant), but they have a much greater capacity to recover after the malady is eliminated. 

If in doubt, read a September 2025 article, accessed here on politico.com, that explains the resiliency of America’s democracy.  It outlines several attributes of nations that are most likely to sustain a democracy that is being attacked by an illiberal leader like Trump, and the economic and other conditions that cause a nation to fall prey to a dictator. 

It details how well established, wealthy democracies, like the United States, have a long history of surviving authoritarians.  That is because these nations value the rule of law over almost all other factors, including party affiliation.  Hard core MAGA types, of course, will not care about the rule of law, as long as the laws are applied against their opponents. 

Still, I believe that most 2024 Trump supporters did not vote for eliminating the rule of law, deporting almost all undocumented immigrants, severely limiting legal migration to the U.S., or shrinking the federal government to a small group of ineffective bureaucrats, which Trump is clearly attempting to do.

Nations that have typically succumbed to a would-be dictator were suffering from an economic or societal upheaval, like runaway inflation, rampant corruption or gang violence, and the man the people turned to was popular, with 80% of the population in some cases.  Once installed, these authoritarians gradually cemented their control, while not alienating the people, particularly their strongest supporters.  And unlike the difficult to amend U.S. Constitution, some easily amended their country’s constitution to allow them to serve for life.

So, are conditions in America ripe for a strong man takeover and does Trump fit the mold of a popular authoritarian?

Well, the U.S. economy has some weaknesses, inflation is creeping up and the job market is getting tighter.  But the stock market is bouncing around record highs and unemployment is still quite low.  It is Trump’s tariff and economic policies, however, that are being blamed for the inflation numbers and even anemic job creation. He is not a savior come to solve vexing economic problems; he is causing them. And that is driving down his approval ratings.

A recent YouGov/Economist poll showed that Trump’s handling of the economy, apparently the public’s number one issue, is underwater by 22 points, with 35%, approving with 57 percent disapproving.  This poll also showed Trump’s job approval rating at an all-time low, with 39 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving.  And VP JD Vance’s 32% approval makes him less popular than Trump, while 21% don’t seem to know anything about Vance.

Trump has enjoyed strong support from several different constituencies, businesspeople and rural populations, including farmers.  He even garnered added support in the 2024 election from minorities, younger Americans and lower income voters. 

Recent polls, however, are quite negative for the president in many ways:

An early August poll showed that almost two-thirds of Americans believed that Trump was corrupt, and 45% thought he was “very corrupt.”  Corruption in politicians is not a partisan issue, both conservatives and liberal voters tend to reject corrupt politicians.

Share of Americans in September who said the country is off track was 75%, an increase from 62% in June. This was likely due to the 51% of Republicans who are now concerned about the direction of the country.  Among Republicans 45 and younger, 60% said things are on the wrong track, a whopping 30-point increase since May.  And only 14% of independents believe the nation is on the right track. 

Trump and his administration are suffering mightily due to missteps with the Epstein files, with 81% blaming Trump for the coverup.  I believe this has eroded his support across most issues, because a September poll has him with negative approval on his handling of major issues that concern voters, tariffs, the economy, inflation, even immigration and crime.

Lastly, do not get me wrong, I am not trying to discount the terrible policies being imposed on us by Trump 2.0.  He is making drastic changes to the economy, the federal government and U.S. foreign policy that will be very difficult to reverse.  But that does not mean Trumpism will be the government of the future or that our democratic republic and its institutions as we have known them will cease to exist after he is gone.

I firmly believe that Americans have lived under the rule of law and the Bill of Rights for far too long to allow Trump and his Republican sycophants to destroy these bedrocks of democracy that have long made America great.

As British PM Winston Churchill reputedly said, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else.”  So, now that they have elected Donald Trump as president twice, I believe his second term will convince most voters that they do not want any more of what Trumpism imposes on them.  In fact, they are already experiencing the authoritarianism, chaos and uncertainty it delivers and no doubt more of that will continue for the remainder of his term.

For nine years of my legal career, I managed a group of lawyers who were defending our company against hundreds of lawsuits.  The experience of winning over 80% of those cases that were tried before a jury gave me confidence that Americans will make the right decisions if presented with the unvarnished evidence.  I believe these successes were the result of the Rules of Civil Procedure that were designed to prevent bogus or unsubstantiated evidence from being considered by jurors in making their decisions. 

Unfortunately, no such restrictions apply in politics or political campaigns, particularly in the past three presidential elections. 

Lies and gaslighting by Trump and his supporters, however, will not convince voters if they cannot show that Trumpism is the right course for America.  This is particularly true regarding inflation and the cost of living, which are paramount issues.  But Americans are concerned about more than just the economy.  Recent polls show that most of them want the rich to pay higher taxes, the social safety net to be strengthened, abortion to be legal in some or most cases and immigration to be promoted not suppressed.  In other words, Trumpism’s core policies are already not at all popular.

As usual, Republicans have cut income taxes again in 2025, mostly for the wealthy.  But Trump’s tariffs are imposing a much larger tax on businesses and consumers, which will cause higher inflation that will hurt lower to middle income Americans and retirees the most.  And while the tariffs are slowing the economy and jobs growth, Republican’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will cause tens of thousands of Americans – many of them Trump voters – to lose health care insurance and food stamp benefits. 

Trump will be 82 in 2028 and his health, including mental health, does not appear to be all that good today.  It is likely that he will not be fit enough to campaign in 2028, even if he somehow gets around the two-term limit in the Constitution.  And it is likely that no one will want him to remain in office beyond this term, or maybe even this year. 

But what about Trumpism?   Will it survive his tenure?  Well, there are some very good reasons why I believe Trumpism’s days are numbered just like Trump’s second term.  Here are just a few of them:

Although the president promised to eliminate regulations, which most corporate leaders applauded, they are being replaced by his 200+ executive orders, his tariffs and his arbitrary dictates.  Consequently, corporate CEOs lack the degree of certainty they need to effectively plan for their businesses.  Worse yet, Trump is trying to become the unofficial co-CEO of many corporations and the government is taking part owner in some of them.  Trump appears to be copying China’s business model and corporate leaders are sure to oppose that.

Has Trump rolled back prices as he promised?  Well, no.  August inflation reports show how Trump’s tariffs are causing Americans to pay higher prices for groceries, clothing, shelter and utilities, as companies pass the cost of tariffs onto consumers.  “And this is only the beginning,” said Heather Long, chief economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. 

Is Trumpism creating jobs?  Not really.  The 263,000 Americans filing for unemployment benefits in early September is at the highest level since October 2021.

Are farmers prospering due to Trump’s tariffs?  Absolutely not.  Farming supports the entire economy of the rural heartland whose voters have strongly supported Trump.  Yet, in the current slowing economy, the tariffs may be hurting farmers the most, particularly the corn farmers and 500,000 soybean farmers, who expect a bumper crop this year.  As of early September, China, the largest single purchaser of American soybeans, had not placed even one order, according to the president of the American Soybean Association.  While Trump’s trade war with China has driven corn and soybean prices way down, his tariffs have significantly increased the prices of farm equipment and fertilizer.  Farmers are hurting.

What about manufacturing and construction jobs?  Well, they are shrinking in 2025.  The “goods-producing” sectors, including manufacturing and construction, have lost 67,000 jobs since April, and construction has shed jobs since May, according to Morgan Stanley economists.  And there were 78,000 fewer manufacturing jobs last month than in August 2024.  

Despite all these statistics, Trump is claiming there is no inflation and some administration officials will not even admit that businesses and consumers are paying for the tariffs.  They have taken gaslighting to an art form.

No political philosophy can retain support, however, when its advocates fail to produce what voters want and keep lying about obvious facts.  I believe time and negative results will catch up with Trump’s wrong-headed policies, his incompetent cabinet and his America First agenda that is leaving America isolated.  So, I seriously doubt that many Americans will want more of Trumpism when Trump is gone, even those who voted for him.

But First, the Disgusting Debacle in Alaska:

Every American should be appalled by the president of the United States kissing the ass of ruthless Russian dictator, President Vladimir Putin.  Yet, that is essentially what President Trump did last Friday in Alaska.  He warmly welcomed Putin like a friend, a man who has murdered over ten thousand innocent civilians in Ukraine and kidnapped hundreds of Ukrainian children.  Sadly, most Republicans are afraid to criticize this diplomatic disaster

I am confident that Putin and his aids enjoyed their best vodka on the flight back to Moscow, probably high-fiving and laughing about the buffoon they had just owned, and without giving him anything in the process.  Telling Trump that the 2020 election was stolen from him was enough.

Trump loves to wield his power to illegally suppress domestic opponents, and he has ample leverage to force Putin to negotiate an end to his invasion of Ukraine; he simply refuses to use it. 

When Barack Obama was president, some Fox News anchors pined for a president like Russia’s Vladimir Putin.  Well, now they have one.  Many Americans, however, would probably prefer a president more like Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now, Some New Tax Break Pluses: 

The Republican’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) will increase the standard deduction by $1,500 for couples filing a joint return for 2025 and by $750 for single filers.  Thereafter, it will be adjusted for inflation.  And starting in 2026, couples filing a joint return can deduct up to $2,000 of charitable donations and up to $1,000 for single filers, even if they take the standard deduction. 

Also, many seniors 65 and over could get a tax deduction of up to $6,000 from 2025 through 2028, even those who take the standard deduction.  This deduction phases out for joint filers whose adjusted gross income (AGI) is over $150,000 but less than $250,000 and for single filers with AGI more than $75,000 but less than $150,000.  For example, the deduction for each joint filer, both over 65 with AGI of $175,000, would be $4,500.  For AGI of $200,000, the deduction would be $3,000 each and for AGI of $225,00 the deduction would be $1,500 each.

Deductions, however, likely won’t benefit between 40% and 50% of Americans who do not owe federal income tax, but we won’t know how the IRS will interpret these changes until later this year.

OBBB Deficits Could Cut Medicare Spending:

The OBBB will cause deficits of $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates.  The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 (PAYGO) dictates that all new legislation that increases the deficits requires offsetting spending reductions in selected mandatory programs, including 4% yearly from Medicare.  Social Security is exempted from PAYGO but other programs subject to reductions are farm price supports, the Social Services block grant and many smaller programs. 

Unless Congress passes legislation to override the PAYGO requirements, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) director, Russell Vought, must trim fiscal year 2026 mandatory spending by $415 billion.  This would reduce Medicare spending by $45 billion and other specified programs by $370 billion. 

Under PAYGO, Medicare spending could be reduced by $491 billion over the 2026–2034 period, which would be a huge minus.  Consequently, Republicans in Congress will be under pressure to totally circumvent PAYGO’s mandatory spending reductions.  I am almost certain, however, that Vought would prefer to retain its Medicare cuts.

OBBB Will Affect Household Resources

Republicans are deceptively claiming that the OBBB will give taxpayers an average tax cut of $3,752 in 2026.  So, if salesman Sam gets a cut of $500 and banker Linda gets $5,000 trimmed from her tax bill, does the average of these cuts ($2,750) mean anything for Sam?

The OBBB, however, will have a much different result, according to the CBO: Household resources in the lowest decile (10%) of the income distribution will decrease on average by around $1,200 per year over the coming decade. Those in the next highest decile will see an average decrease of $400 per year in their household resources. These results are mainly due to the OBBB’s $900 billion reduction in Medicaid and food stamp spending over the next decade.

The average yearly increase of household resources for the middle of the income distribution, the fifth and sixth deciles, will be $800 and $1,200, respectively, over the coming decade.  Those in the nineth decile will be doing much better, with an average increase in household resources of $3,200 per year.  Ah, but wealthy households in the highest decile will enjoy an average annual increase of $13,600 through 2034.  The highest income taxpayers mostly benefit from the OBBB’s federal tax provisions. 

My Conclusion:

An August Pew Research poll shows how Americans feel about the following:

OBBB – 46% disapprove, 32% approve, 23% unsure.  Trump tariff policies – 61% disapprove, 38% approve.  Trump making the federal government worse – 53% agree, 27% disagree.  Trump’s job handling – 60% disapprove, 38% approve.  And I believe these numbers will get significantly worse for Trump as his policies negatively impact the economy and government operations.

Trump badly mishandled the covid pandemic in 2020 and he lost the election.  Polls show a majority of voters believe he is mismanaging the U.S. economy in 2025.  And if that continues, as I believe it will, Trump and Trumpism could be history by 2029.

“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government; that whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice, they may be relied on to set them to rights.”  This quote from a Thomas Jefferson communication to Richard Price in 1789 frequently comes to mind when I read about social media misinformation and the myriads of conspiracy theories that infect right-wing political thought.

I believe a poorly informed electorate is a major reason why our democratic republic is being threatened by an autocratic-minded President Trump and his administration.  Unfortunately, the Republican-controlled Congress is their handmaiden and we cannot solely depend on the courts to protect our democracy, and certainly not the conservative majority on the Supreme Court.  Therefore, it will be up to every American to do their part to defend our democratic institutions and the first step in a strong bulwark is for all of us to stay well informed. 

So, today I want to present some facts and information that I believe every U.S. voter should know.

The Trump administration is being directed by his deputy chief of staff for policy, Stephen Miller, and the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russel Vought.  Both are radical, far-right men with separate dangerous agendas.  Miller is directing immigration enforcement and he wants to deport every undocumented immigrant in America.  And, the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)Trump signed on July 4 gives him the funding to do that.

Vought is a Christian nationalist who controls federal government downsizing.  He believes the Impoundment Act is unconstitutional.  This law prevents the president from refusing to spend funding that Congress has appropriated.   If it were repealed or overturned by the Supreme Court, he and Trump would take control of government spending, regardless of what Congress appropriates. 

Trump doesn’t seem to care about details and he is allowing these ruthless men to carry out their agendas.  So, while Trump is cosplaying a king, his henchmen are directing the draconian policies that will harm many of the MAGA faithful.  And I believe this will lead to Trump’s undoing.

Inflation was a big issue in the 2024 election.  Trump promised to immediately bring prices down if elected.  But I have seen no evidence that Trump has done anything this year that significantly reduced prices.  In fact, his tariffs are almost certain to increase prices – and now we know more about how much.

Trump claims tariffs are paid by exporting foreign countries.  Americans should understand, however, that tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. importing companies that either decreases their profits or increases prices for consumers.  The average tax on imports at the beginning of 2025 was 2.5%.  The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the effective tariff rate as of July 23 is 20.3%, which will cause a hit in yearly household incomes of $2,800. 

Because the stock markets are doing very well, I don’t believe Trump will back off imposing large tariffs across the board on August 1 if most trade deals have not been made by then.  Price increases passed on by importers haven’t significantly increased inflation yet for several reasons, but it is just a matter of time until they do.

The OBBB will increase federal budget deficits by $3.4 trillion over the next decade and cause 10 million Americans to lose health insurance, according to the July 21 estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  This law also cuts over $100 billion from the food stamp program that provides supplemental nutrition for 42 million Americans, 36% if which are children.  Republicans cut $1.1 trillion in health care and food stamp spending to help reduce the deficits caused by the tax cuts.  This will hurt them in 2026 midterms.

I have written before about how Medicaid cuts will likely bankrupt more rural hospitals, which provide numerous jobs and add greatly to the economies of the surrounding communities.  But how many voters know that Medicaid pays for around 40% of U.S. births – 40% – and over 50% of nursing home costs.  

But here’s the thing, cuts to Medicaid or Medicare will increase the cost of all other health insurance.  It just makes sense, medical facilities will have to treat more patients that can’t pay.  So, they must increase the cost to those who are insured to stay solvent and continue to operate.

Well, there is some encouraging news: Trump’s approval rating among U.S. adults hit a new low of 37% last Thursday, according to Gallup.  This is only 3% better than his lowest rating, which came at the end of his first term.  He continued to lose support among independent voters (29%), who rated him most poorly on his handling of the budget, Ukraine and trade policy. 

Trump highest job ratings were for his handling of Iran and foreign affairs, but still underwater at a little over 40%.  His lowest ratings were for Ukraine (33%) and the federal budget (29%).  His job on immigration, which has been a strong point for him until recently, was at 38% and even lower on the economy, 37%. 

Some percentage of Trump’s MAGA crowd will stick with him no matter how he hurts them but cutting social services to pay for tax cuts for the rich and increasing inflation will surely anger many of his 2024 voters in the 2026 elections and significantly reduce his power with Republican politicians.  This is what will styme a Trump autocracy.

The theme of my September 2022 post was that Republican failures to deliver on their deeply conservative agenda was the main reason they can keep winning elections.  Why?  Because their small government, cut spending policies are so unpopular that voters would boot them out of office if they even tried to enact them.  Well, President Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress apparently intend to take that risk.  And I believe the pushback will douse the fire of their authoritarian ambitions.

It was appalling when Republicans in Congress sat on their hands while Elon Musk and DOGE recklessly took a chain saw to the federal government.  And it was beyond shocking when they let Musk and Sec. State Rubio terminate the distribution of USAID food and medicine to poor African countries. They are evidently willing to let tens of thousands of sick and starving women and children needlessly die to achieve small spending cuts.

Instead of opposing Trump and Musk by trying to prevent this humanitarian crisis, they either ignored it or lied about what was happening.  Then they got busy massaging Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), which will enact many conservative objectives that most Americans oppose.

Unquestionably, this bill will inflict the most pain on poorer rural areas where voters strongly support Trump and Republicans, and I don’t think these good folks are aware of that yet.  It has many harmful provisions, but today I want to focus on a few of the most egregious – deep cuts to social safety net programs and support for deporting more immigrants.

The primary purpose of the OBBB, of course, is to make permanent most provisions of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which could increase federal deficits by $4 trillion over 10 years.  We will not know the final numbers until the bill is ready for Trump’s signature but to offset part of the resulting loss in revenues, it will cut almost $800 billion from Medicaid and food stamp programs, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates.

Along with Medicaid cuts, OBBB’s changes to Obamacare could increase the number of Americans without health care insurance by up to 16 million, according to the CBO.  Critics are calling the it the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in U.S. history, particularly from the lower 10% on the income scale to the top 10%.

I suspect that Trump and many Republicans do not understand all that Medicaid does, particularly in rural, mostly red, counties.  Well, it provides health insurance for 40% of America’s children under age 18, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation and pays for 41% of all U.S. births, according to the Medicaid website.  It also provides health insurance for a larger share of both adults and children in small towns and rural areas than in metropolitan counties in every state, according to the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families.

Many poor congressional districts that are represented by Republicans rely on Medicaid and food stamps. So do states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana that are represented by Republican Senators.  

Speaker Mike Johnson’s district in Louisiana is also highly dependent on these programs.  I don’t know what he is telling his constituents, but 38% of them benefit from Medicaid, according to the Kaisar Family Foundation, and many also need food stamps.  Louisiana’s Medicaid enrollment of 32% ranks second among the states and almost 80% of nursing home costs in the state are covered by Medicaid.  

Statistics show that Medicaid payments enable hundreds of rural hospitals to operate.  Still, many of them have already closed, particularly in states that did not expand Medicaid under Obamacare.  In 34 out of 40 Medicaid expansion states, 190 rural hospitals may close due to Medicaid cuts proposed by House Republicans in April, according data from the Cener for Healthcare Quality.  But the final legislation may increase Medicaid cuts and could guarantee that dozens of these facilities will shut down.

Rural area economies also benefit from undocumented immigrants.  Deporting hundreds of thousands of them will devastate farmers, food processors, health care businesses and construction companies.  Trump only recently woke up to that fact, which shows how ignorant he is.  So, he directed that raids be curtailed on most of these workplaces, some of which employ hundreds of undocumented workers.  Reportedly, his advisors quickly reversed this directive.  One wonders, who is in charge in the White House? 

The OBBB applies to fiscal year 2026 that starts October 1, and Americans have yet to experience the full effects of Trump’s tariffs or his round up of undocumented workers, both of which are expected to increase inflation.  Still, the results of 10 June polls show Trump’s job approval underwater in seven, with a low of 38% and a high of 54%.   The Fox News poll shows that 59% oppose the House passed OBBB and only 46% approved Trump’s job performance.

Republican factions in Congress are battling over the final draft of the OBBB.  As it nears that stage, more voters will realize the harm it will do and I believe more of them will oppose it.  Strong public opposition will give courage to more Republican officials and politicians to stand up to Trump and that will weaken him and his regime.  Pushing back hard against these tyrants is the sure way to defeat their authoritarian agenda.  

The U.S. Constitution established America’s rule of law and its bill of rights, which are the foundation upon which America’s greatness has evolved.  These tenets of democracy provided a political, social and business environment that attracted top notch scientists and massive amounts of capital from around the world.  They also made investments in the United States secure, enabled a diverse group of creative people to flourish and gave entrepreneurs the freedom to innovate. 

Over the course of the 20^th Century these qualities made the United States the leader of the free world and a super power, scientifically, economically and militarily.  Today, however, its greatness is being seriously threatened by President Trump and his Republican Party acolytes.  And here are just a few of the many ways they are doing it.

Many CEOs and conservatives believe capitalism is what has made America great.  So, despite the numerous crimes Trump has committed, many of them probably voted for him to eliminate regulations and cut taxes.  Perhaps they ignored other things he promised to do.  Well, what these folks are experiencing is arbitrary regulation by Trump, according to his whims, and there is not much legal recourse for that.  Now they know he will try to punish any entity or individual that opposes or displeases him. 

When Walmart’s CEO announced that his company would increase prices because of the tariffs, Trump told him to “eat the tariffs” and that he would be watching.  He also recently told Apple’s CEO that his company must make iPhones in the U.S. or suffer a 25% tariff on all those that are imported.  And when a rumor spread that Amazon would start displaying the exact cost of tariff-related price increases alongside all its products, press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, immediately accused the company of being “hostile and political” during a press briefing and Trump called Jeff Bezos. 

If Trump gets control of the FTC, FCC, or any other currently independent federal agency that makes decisions on what corporations can or cannot do, he will use this power as leverage to make affected companies do his bidding.  If they are planning a merger, want to get or keep a license to operate or need any other agency approval, they will have to comply with his demands or risk being denied.  I believe Trump directed government control makes our economic system more like socialism than capitalism.

Republicans have been attacking everything that they consider “woke,” which I believe means anything they have identified as liberal.  The scientific community and universities are at the top of their list.  The Trump administration is investigating DEI programs as crimes and green energy programs to combat climate change are being terminated.

America is recognized as the world’s largest investor in scientific research, with half of all science Nobel laureates and four of the ten best scientific-research universities, according to my research.  The internet and mRNA covid vaccines are just two of the multitude of innovations by American scientists that benefited all of humanity.  Trump’s immigration policies and attacks on science and universities, however, are discouraging foreign talent from coming to the U.S. and driving highly skilled foreign residents to leave. 

Elon Musk’s and his Department of Government Efficiency’s methods to create government efficiency have been like someone cutting off their arm to lose weight.  They simply hacked pieces off agencies indiscriminately, no doubt leaving them less efficient.  In the process, they cancelled thousands of government contracts and laid off or fired thousands of government employees, many of them scientists and engineers that foreign entities are now recruiting.  As a result, critical research has been terminated on numerous projects and diseases, including Alzheimer’s and cancer.

The greatest damage to American greatness, however, is being done by Trump’s attack on the rule of law.  Over a month ago the Supreme Court ordered the Trump administration to “facilitate” the return to the U.S. of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man who the government mistakenly deported to a Salvadorian prison without due process.  Yet, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem recently testified before a Senate committee that there is “no scenario” in which Garcia will be in the country again, as the court ordered.

Clearly, House Republicans are supporting the president’s lawless efforts.  The Big, Beautiful bill they passed last week contains a little noticed provision aimed at rendering court orders against President Trump’s deportations of lawful immigrants in the U.S. without due process unenforceable, according to Erwin Chemerinsky, the Dean of the University of California-Berkeley School of Law. 

Reacting to the Trump’s relentless attacks on American judges who rule against his policies, former conservative Circuit Court Judge J. Michael Luttig stated during a weekend interview on MSNBC, “[Judges] are simply enforcing their oath to the Constitution of the United States.”  And he warned, “I don’t know where this ends… but it appears that, in this moment, the President intends to prosecute this war against the federal judiciary–and the rule of law– to its catastrophic end.”

Unfortunately, there are many other ways Trump is threatening America’s greatness, like weaponizing the Department of Justice, exploding the nation’s debt with more tax cuts and jeopardizing the reputation of U.S. Treasuring bonds as a safe investment.  I believe the courts and the bond markets will help restrain him, but strong public protests may be the best way to stop him.  So, let’s keep doing it!

Trump’s base is his power:

Would you believe that up to $50 trillion of income likely bypassed the lower 90% of American wealth holders between 1975 and 2020 and flowed mostly to the top 1%?  That is what a Time.com report estimates, based on research by the Rand Corporation.  Regardless, gross inequality has certainly held back working-class Americans for decades.  Democrats bear some responsibility for this situation.  But I believe Republican administrations since the 1980s played the major role in a huge wealth transfer, mostly with tax cuts for the wealthy, opposition to labor unions and refusals to increase the minimum wage.

Income inequality enabled Donald Trump to attract disaffected workers in both the 2016 and 2024 elections and with his showman’s skills and populus messaging lies, he crafted them into a hardcore Trumpian base.  They became his weapon to intimidate political rivals and take total control of the GOP.  It is imperative to his political future, however, that he maintain their strong support.

President Trump’s tariffs are hurting America’s primary job creators:

Small businesses are 99.9% of all U.S. businesses, according to a November report by USAFACTS.  They employed 59.0 million people, or 45.9% of private-sector employees, as of July 2024, and are responsible for 61.1% of overall job growth since 1995.  Many of them depend on imports for the products they make and/or sell.  They do not have pricing power like large corporations nor options to deal with Trump’s tariffs, so many of them operate with narrow margins. Consequently, even Trump’s 10% tariff on their imports will increase their cost of doing business and decrease their profits.  Almost certainly, many small businesses will lay off workers and some will go out of business.  No doubt, a lot of the people suffering will be Trump supporters.

Trump is damaging America’s greatest assets:

I believe the greatest near-term threat to America and Americans is the diminishing status of U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar that is being caused primarily by Trump’s America First agenda.  If investors around the world stop treating these assets like gold – as they have for decades – interest on our huge debt will skyrocket and financing it will become unbearable.  The point could be reached when only huge tax increases and draconian spending cuts to Social Security, Medicare and defense will enable the government to avoid an economic catastrophe.  And it will be the lower 90% of wealth holders and many Trump voters that will suffer the most.

Trump’s 2026 budget will hurt his most loyal supporters:

Republicans in the House and Senate, however, are ignoring America’s impending debt crisis and using the Senate’s 2026 budget resolution to craft Trump’s “beautiful” bill.  It will add $5.8 trillion (almost $7 trillion with interest) to the national debt over the next decade with tax cuts of $5.3 trillion and added spending for defense and border security of over $500 billion.  I am almost certain that hundreds of billions in funding will be cut from Medicaid, food stamps and education programs during this process and Democrats will have no way prevent it. 

Voting patterns show that Trump gets overwhelming support from rural areas where voters are poorer, older and sicker.  Medicaid supports around 72 million people across America and many of them also receive food stamps.  Seven states have more than 25 percent of their population on Medicaid health insurance, according to the health policy research website KFF.  Among these are Speaker Mike Johnson’s home state of Louisiana (32.4%), Kentucky (28.3%), West Virginia (28.2%) and Arkansas (27.4%), all of which are very poor and overwhelmingly voted for Trump.  When Trump supporters lose these benefits because he wanted to give tax cuts to the wealthy, I believe many of them will turn against him.

Trump wants to cut or eliminate FEMA:

Trump recently denied federal aid to Kentucky for disastrous flood damage in February and to Arkansas for damage caused by 14 tornados that struck during a two-day period in March.  Both states helped elect him last year.  Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was among Trump’s most loyal supporters and his press secretary during his first term.  Unquestionably, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is a critical resource for Trump voting states, including the Carolinas, Florida and others that border the Gulf of Mexico.

Polls tell why Trump will fail:

So far in his first 100 days, numerous polls indicate that Trump is badly failing to properly deal with the problems his voters wanted solved, inflation, immigration and the economy.  Even a recent Fox News poll found that his approval rating is only 44%.  Other polls have his approval as low as a 37%.  Trump’s typically positive rating on the economy is at 38% approve versus 56% disapprove in the Fox poll and his approval number on both inflation and tariffs is 33%. 

Trump appears to have no plan for effectively managing his ill-conceived trade war and I think China’s President Xi will embarrass him before he backs down.  The fallout from his government downsizing will certainly cause numerous unintended negative consequences and his incompetent cabinet and staff will exacerbate them.  As a result, I believe his base support will significantly weaken, Republicans in Congress will finally start opposing him, Democrats will win one or both chambers in 2026 and Trump’s authoritarian dream will wake up to a stark reality.  Americans do not want another king.

President Trump loves the leverage that tariffs give him.  He can use them to cause countries to kneel to his wishes, punish U.S. companies if they displease him and grant exceptions to companies that stroke his ego.  And so far, he has been able to wield tariffs like the dictator he is, without needing approval from Congress.  They give him the king-like power he craves and he showed he is intoxicated with it when he caused world-wide chaos with the reciprocal tariffs he launched on “Liberation Day,” April 2.  

Then on Tuesday night, April 8, just a few hours before the reciprocal rates were to take effect, he spoke for almost two hours at a dinner held by the National Republican Congressional Committee.  As part of his remarks he proudly said that countries subject to his tariffs were “calling us up,” “Kissing my ass,” and “dying to make a deal,” according to reports on the event. 

The next day, however, Trump paused the most egregious of the tariff rates for 90 days, citing the “yippy” bond markets.  There was good reason for concern because overnight they had begun to convulse, with a sharp selloff of U.S. government bonds and the dollar.  Evidently, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent managed to convince the president that he would be solely blamed for an impending financial disaster if he didn’t backoff the higher reciprocal tariffs. 

Still, it seems clear that Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs affect the economy since he continues to claim that they will be paid by the exporting countries and not raise prices for American consumers.  Nor does he seem to know how his tariffs are damaging investors’ confidence in dollar denominated instruments.

U.S. dollars and bonds have been treated almost like gold for decades and a safe haven for almost 60% of the emergency reserves held by foreign governments.  Typically, investors hoard these assets during troubling times when stock markets tank, which tends to lower bond rates.  But the early April 9 selloff caused a rapid increase in bond interest rates and the price of gold that panicked Bessent.  This was an indication that confidence in the United States was rapidly eroding and that interest rates could go much higher, which would make the cost of financing our already huge national debt soar out of control.

Still, Trump has left significant tariffs in place, like 10% on all imports, 145% on Chinese imports, 25% on imported cars and more, causing China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. imports. So, investors are left with some pressing questions:  Will he re-impose higher rates in July?  Will significant manufacturing return to the U.S.?  Will a recession be avoided?  Nobody knows, of course, least of all, Trump. 

Although the stock markets partially bounced back with the pause, trade war jitters caused them to seesaw on Thursday and Friday and consumer confidence has plummeted to a record low.  I believe the economy damaging uncertainly that Trump’s hip-shooting policies are causing will continue unabated and that recession chances will remain high. 

Yet, ill-conceived as they were, Trump’s tariffs are a distraction from the deep and lasting damage that he has done to America during his first 83 days in office, including to its system of justice and the rule of law.  I believe this period is the initial phase of America’s Trump-induced race to the bottom and that the worst is likely yet to come.  And two of his recent executive orders are good example of that. 

One ordered the DOJ to investigate former Homeland Security official Miles Taylor, who wrote the anonymous op-ed published by the New York Times in 2018 that was highly critical of Trump, and who later wrote a book about his experiences in Trump’s administration.  Trump said, “I think he’s guilty of treason [a capital offense].  We’ll find out.”

The other EO ordered the DOJ to investigate Trump’s first term election security director, Chris Krebs, for allegedly being part of an effort to steal the 2020 election from Trump.  What was his crime?  He repeatedly and correctly told Trump that there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election. 

These EOs are so outrageous and unconstitutional that I wonder if Trump has lost his mind? 

It is no secret, however, that our trading partners and allies now believe that Trump, and therefore America, cannot be trusted to abide by agreements on trade, defense or intelligence sharing and no doubt that is factor in the growing, world-wide erosion of confidence in the United States, its Treasury bonds and dollar. 

Consequently, I believe Trump administration incompetence and America First policies are causing world leaders and investors to ask a very critical question: Is the U.S. still a safe haven? 

The answer could depend on policies that Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress implement going forward.  But I have zero confidence that they know what they are doing or care who gets hurt as they push major legislation that will give huge tax breaks to the wealthy, massively cut Medicaid and increase the national debt by $5 trillion over the next decade.

Make no mistake though, the Republican Party is happy with allowing Trump to govern like a dictator.  Fortunately, I don’t think he has consolidated enough power yet to make his dictatorship permanent and we the people are not going to let him do that.